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Polar Bears International
@polarbearsinternational

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Have you heard the news? Our chief scientist emeritus, Dr. Steven Amstrup, recently published a paper that, for the first time, quantified a direct link between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and polar bear survival. Published in Science, the report provides a template for estimating the demographic impact of proposed GHG-emitting actions on polar bears—overcoming a loophole in the Endangered Species Act (ESA) that has historically blocked climate considerations. The approach outlined in the paper connects the dots between greenhouse gas emissions, the number of ice-free days caused by specific amounts of emissions, and polar bear survival rates. It also explains the recent declining trends observed in some polar bear subpopulations. “We’ve known for decades that continued warming and sea ice loss ultimately can only result in reduced distribution and abundance of polar bears,” says lead author Dr. Steven Amstrup, “But until now, we’ve lacked the ability to distinguish impacts of greenhouse gases emitted by particular activities from the impacts of historic cumulative emissions. In this paper, we reveal a direct link between anthropogenic GHG emissions and cub survival rates. The methodology, for the first time, allows us to parse the impact of emissions by source. Importantly, the approach we describe, using regression analysis to connect GHG emissions to habitat and demographic changes, also has broad application beyond polar bears to other ecosystems and species—and could be used by managers and policymakers around the world when evaluating development projects.” Continued in caption, and learn more in our link in bio ⬆️ 📷: © Kt Miller / polarbearsinternational.org #polarbear #polarbears #polarbearsinternational #endangeredspeciesact #climateaction #climateactionnow #wildlifeconservation